Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Oct 23 2012

The dollar broke it's trending weekly resistance level today. Having just broken this, I would expect a few more days of upward action. However, I believe the moving averages will provide enough resistance to cap the rally. Equities and metals will continue to slide until the dollar tops.








Gold is nearing it's bottom, but it could still drop a few more dollars into the end of the week. There's fibo support at $1695. The 200MA is way below that, so I don't think we'd make it that far.. and quite honestly, there's no need to. The indicators have cleared any indications of being overbought with this correction and will be nearing oversold very soon.





Silver is in the the same position as gold. A few more cents to go. I'd like to see a bottom right around $31. Indicators are blowing off all of the overbought sentiment.





Stocks were off 1.44% today. After getting rejected multiple times at $150, SPY turned around mostly being pushed by dollar strength. You can see the $140 level has a pretty significant level of support. However, if the dollar has not topped at that point, stock will continue to drop. The next obvious level of support would be in the 200MA range, which coincidentally is also the multi month low trendline.




Let's see if the dollar can break GDX through the bottom of it's flag tomorrow.





I'll remain neutral to bearish on metals and stocks until we find a top in the dollar. That should come in by the end of this week or the beginning of next. All eyes on the dollar until then.

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