Oct 17, 2013

Well, I'm back in the saddle. It's been a long year with too many things going on to responsibly keep up with market action. This time, I'm going to take a different approach. Counting cycles and updating them daily took way too much time. I'm going to keep it simple.. using some basic trend lines, channels, and technical formations along with some indicators to try and find entry/exit points. The commentary will be minimal and the charts should speak for themselves. I'm also not only going to focus on metals, but I want to look at some equities that present some unique opportunities.

Let's dive in..

SLV - Silver - Trading in a downward bear channel right now. Watch for any daily outside closes of this channel. Also watch the trendline off of the July lows. Also notice the kiss of the 3ema touching the 10ema. A crossover tomorrow could give us a buy signal.

$WTIC - Crude - Are we just falling out of a rising wedge? If not, are we forming a megaphone (in red) with a higher high coming soon?

TLT - Treasury Bonds - Treasury Bonds looking to break out soon. Inverse head and Shoulders? Nice bottoming action going on here after a bear channel down.

WLT - Walter Energy - Walter Energy has taken a beating over the last couple of years. From highs at $140 all the way down to $10. They acquired a lot of debt in a new acquisition. Will they be able to recover as demand for MET coal rises worldwide this year? Watch for a quick pullback at current levels.

RVLT - Revolution Lighting - I'm hoping this one turns into a great swing trader in the coming months. I'd like to see this channel play out touching the top and bottom several times. Watching these trendlines to see where price action takes us. Looking a bit overbought right now.

And lastly..

S&P - $SPX - Stocks just have me mesmerized. I just can't see how they keep going up and up. Today we broke over the old high in the $1732 range. What does this mean? Could we trade to the top of the channel at +$1760? I watch in awe..

Jan 01, 2013 - Happy New Year!

Happy New Year to everyone! Just wanted to take a moment to say thanks to those who subscribe. I hope my analysis is somewhat helpful.

I hope to have an update out by the end of the week addressing some big changes the occurred over the holidays.. And that are also occurring right now. Once the vote is made tonight on the "fiscal cliff" by the house, we should have a little bit better idea what to expect in the coming days and weeks.

Have a great night night!

Dec 19, 2012

It's been a tough trading year and there are only a few days left to get things straight. At this point, metals are nearly unchanged. This consolidation did not come without action, however.

There are many rumors flying about the blogosphere currently about why metals have corrected along with the dollar. I'll leave it up to you to find these and figure out which myth makes the most sense to you. It's in my best interest to try and ignore the noise and keep track of our cycles.

Sentiment has been very low since this breakdown in metals has occurred. This must mean that a bottom is very near.

There are several ways to approach what has happened. I'm not going to present all theories here. It's too time consuming and exhausting. So, I'll cover what I think  is going on with the cycles and we'll use that framework as we move along into the new year.

Dec 18, 2012

Today was a very important day in the metals. Unfortunately I just dont have time tonight to cover everything tonight. There will be a new update sent out tomorrow evening with fresh cycle counts and expectations to give us an idea of where we stand and what perhaps we can expect as we go into the new year. The market has thrown us many curveballs in the last few weeks and today was no different. We have a lot to cover. Stay tuned..

..until tomorrow, have a great night!

Sneak peak..

Early November was a fakeout ICL. Price never touched the 200 MA leaving behind a gap. Today, that mark was reached almost to the penny. A stretched ICL could be in play. We all know what comes from the result of ICLs right?!?

Dec 17, 2012

It's been a few days since my last update. Not much has happened, so I'll make it quick just to point out a few important changes.

The $USD has formed a failed daily cycle. I've talked about this several times. The intermediate and yearly cycle declines are in full force. Today was day 7 of the current daily cycle. It broke below the previous DCL, therefore creating a failed daily cycle. These are normally indicative of an intermediate decline. The average DC runs 18-28 days. This gives us 5-10 more days of downside.