07 Dec, 2013

Interesting day in the markets so I decided to post a few of my thoughts.

We've been chopping through some topping action in the indexes lately. Today we saw a bit of follow through to the downside.

Closer look at the day's breakdown.. large selling volume.

One could be long Chicos at this point breaking out from the iH&S.

Commodity Weakness is leaving behind this pattern.. a H&S.

Keep an eye on TLT for a possible breakout if the neckline can be broken.

Silver could be in BIG trouble here..

Keep an eye on the miners for a possible breakout or breakdown.. it's coming soon.

Mexico ETF looks horrible.. big short candidate.

Can Penske hang on?

SCO breakout has played out very nicely.

Santarus forming possible cup and handle.. keep an eye on this one.

Have a great night!

29 Oct, 2013

First update of the week..

PAG - Penske Automotive Group - New chart of the day. This stock has been trading some classic formations. We're seeing a breakdown of a head and shoulders now that just happens to have a target price that aligns with lower support. The TSI and MACD also still have a little room to run. If you're not short, you could get long after some confirmed bottoming action around the $34 mark.

SPY - S&P - Equities are on drugs.. the Ben Bernanke kind. They just keep getting higher and higher.. slowly day by day. Although, I think it's time for a turn around. There are a few key technical indicators that are telling us to turn right here. I'm also keeping an eye on the $USD. It just possibly formed a daily cycle low, forming a swing low yesterday. If Dollar price increases from here, that combined with the exhausted buyers, may give us some time to breath. Another thing to note is that SPY saw only 80 million on it's volume for the day. The average is about 115 million. While that's not a terrible difference, I think it's key to note an increased price on decreased volume.


5 day chart:

1 year chart:

GTAT - Technical divergences finally started to pressure the price. Gtat is now moving down to find a new support.

TLT - Can bonds find support around the $102 area after the iH&S breakout? If so, I would be long to the $112 region.

$WTIC - Crude Oil - Has Crude found support in the $97 region? Or will it continue to breakdown back into it's last trading range?

SCO - Inverse Crude (USO) - Our SCO target of $34 was almost met. Still a shot at getting there?

GDX - Gold Miners - As mentioned a week or so ago, GDX looked to breakout and move higher. It did, and reversed today with gold's down day coinciding with the spike in the dollar. As long as the new low does not exceed the summer lows, we should be in a position to move higher.

RVLT - This stock has played out almost exactly as the indicators told us it would.  Let's see if we find support on the rising trendline forming the beginning of a pennant. If not, we'll trade down forming a parallel channel. Either should give a great opportunity for swing plays off of each level of support/resistance.

Have a great night!

23 Oct, 2013

Midweek Updates -

S&P - SPY - 1 hour chart on the S&P is showing a breakdown of an ascending triangle. I'm assuming the first target will be the 50MA.

Here's a longer term look at the S&P. Which trend lines will prevail here?

GTAT - Gtat showing some negative divergence between price and indicators. Price set a higher high but all indicators set a lower high. Is this a sign? A test of the bottom of the current trading channel should be in the cards here.

Silver - SLV - SLV is chugging along bouncing around inside this bottoming channel. I'd like to see a little breather now and then a push to the topside of this channel over $22.

Inverse Oil - SCO - This has been a fantastic trade on an almost text book breakout.

RVLT - As shown a few days ago, RVLT was showing signs of weakness. We've now seen some follow through to the downside. The only question that remains is where the bottom will be. TSI has shown a crossover and MACD is very close.

Have a great night!

21 Oct, 2013

Tonight's updates..

Gold Miners - GDX - GDX is progressing nicely.. breaking the trendline today. All daily indicators giving buy signal. A close over this trendline tomorrow (Tuesday) would be a definite positive sign.

Silver - SLV - Silver continues it's march towards $22. SLV gapped up today with the increase of silver futures overnight.

Oil - USO - Oil is breaking down at this point. It has solidly broken down from a head and shoulders. I'm interested to watch and see if price action falls back into the previous trading channel.

Oil Inverse - SCO - One not wanting to short a market could go long an inverse ETF. In this case, SCO is breaking out from an inverse head and shoulders. I expect upside until price reaches overhead resistance at around $34.

Revolution Lighting - RVLT - RVLT is correcting from an overbought situation. Look to find support on previous support areas. TSI is very close to crossing over and one good down day would also signal the 3/10/20ema for a sell.

S&P - SPY - The S&P gave us a sign of indecision and possible trend change today with a spinning top. As mentioned previously, look for a short breather this week after anxious buying last week.. and then a further advance.

Long term view..

Have a great night!

Oct 20, 2013

Just a few updates before the week starts..

S&P - SPY -  I expect a breather this week after such a sharp incline. Key things to notice is that the new surge in price broke out over the previous high. This usually signals more buying to come. And as always, higher prices can be confirmed by a quick back test of the break out level. Resistance turns into support. Indications of a short pullback.. RSI is high, and the 3/10/20 is at a deep spread. Also, not annotated on this chart, but price is currently above the upper Bollinger band. Reasons to believe higher prices are to come? Prices have broken to new highs, MACD is possibly breaking a long term trend, and as always.. a trend is a trend, until it's no longer a trend. Don't fight it.

One thing to be concerned about? The huge negative divergences on the MACD and TSI. they're making lower highs.. rather than higher highs like the price is. Another concern is the length of time that it's been since there was a meaningful correction. The continued higher prices without correction is reminiscent of a blow off speculative top. When this up-channel breaks, look out below..

Silver - SLV - This is just another view of silver from the last post. I wanted to display the rounding/bottoming action. RSI has been flat.. not sure I've ever seen this before. MACD and TSI look to be turning up and showing a buy along with the 3/10/20ema crossover. I'm curious to see if price action continues to roll around this semi-circle and push up to the $22 area before coming back. With the EMA giving us a buy signal, this could be a nice short swing trade.

Gold Miners - GDX - I wanted to show a couple of different looks at the miners. The 1 year chart shows a very distinct down trend line. A bull market will not resume until this is broke. With sentiment at absolute rock bottom for this sector, a big technical breakout could signal a huge buying spree. Notice the "W" double bottom back in the summer of 2012.. and then notice we got the same type of action this summer. Will the "W" hold as a double bottom or will it fail again?


1 year

Here's a closer look at the bottom of the "W". The 3/10/20 gave us a buy signal on Friday. One wanting to enter a position in GDX at this point could buy a % of their position based on the ema, and then purchase another portion of their position when breaking the down trendline. A break of this could cause some buying pushing price up against the longer term trend line seen on the 1 year chart.. at about $26-27.

6 Month

US Dollar Index - $USD - I spent some time this afternoon looking at the current position of the dollar index. I've always had a hard time reading the dollar for some reason. RSI is telling me that we're sitting at a low and should expect some buying. However, MACD and TSI are giving us a bear crossover. I'd also like to point out that price action is trading below an established trendline that began a year ago.. it closed outside of there on Friday. Will it continue to fall from here?

Thanks for reading!