This invalidates what I said yesterday about the dollar printing it's daily cycle low yesterday. It didn't.. and it appears that it may have today. Majority of the time, once a low is printed, we can confirm with a swing low. Notice I saad "majority", not "all" of the time. If the market always made sense, then anyone could trade it.
That makes the dollar's last cycle a stretched cycle putting in it's low on day 30. The normal timing band is 18-28 days. That doesn't mean that it HAS to bottom within that time period, it's just the average time period. Sometimes it can go short and sometimes it can go longer.. although both are very rare.
There's also one other alternate scenario.. and it's that the dollar actually did begin a new daily cycle yesterday, printed it's high, and then began immediately to reverse into a new DCL. This is HIGHLY unlikely, but I just wanted to throw that out there.
For the sake of time, I will not repeat everything I wrote about the dollar and it's timing that I wrote yesterday. Just go back and read it, then apply it one day forward to today's low. I expect the dollar to rally for 4-6 more days from here.
Note the red trendline.. we'll need to break above that to confirm a new swing low.
Today marks day 17 of gold's daily cycle. Price behavior was boring today as we basically just marked time hanging below the previous daily trendline. Gold should continue in the coming days to seek out it's low.
Silver showed an odd strength today. I used this to my advantage to sell my DEC and JAN SLV calls. You may ask why I sold my calls while silver is going up? It's easy. Why would I sell them when silver is going down.. and the dollar is due to bottom and bounce? I discuss these trades a bit more below.
With that said, I obviously believe silver will reverse from here and also seek out it's daily cycle low. I believe today's action was nothing more than a technical trade based off of the huge hammer candle formed yesterday.. which was caused by the blunder in gold.
Here's a longer term look at silver. I'm not going to comment.. other than, it's beautiful, isn't it?
GDX is looking better and better to me. We closed back in the channel today.. AND above the 200 DMA. Some folks may have seen today as boring in the miners.. but I see it as a very important day.
Also.. one more look at GDX. I'm not leaving any comments on this one either and will leave it to you to do your own research on the "megaphone" formation and what you think may come of it.
Today I booked some profits on my SLV calls. I would never think it to be wise to buy during the timeframe that the dollar was due to bounce. It just put in a bottom, so I thought I should exit my calls before the session ended.
I owned:
SLV Dec $34
Paid - $0.20
Sold - $0.39
Profit - 95%
SLV Jan $30
Paid - $2.24
Sold - $3.30
Profit - 49.5 %
I'll look to reenter some SLV calls in the next 4-8 days as the dollar finds a top and begins to rollover to seek out it's new DCL.
Good luck to all!
No comments:
Post a Comment